CGI Gulf Insights of the Week Jun 29 2020

  • ByCGI Gulf Insights of the Week
  • Monday, 29 June 2020
  • Published inJune 2020
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CRIF GULF WEEKLY INSIGHTS
Country Risk Update - Saudi Arabia

Risk Indicator  - DB4a
Risk Level        - Moderate
Ratings Trend  - Deteriorating rapidly

Despite the recovery in oil prices, the short-term economic outlook remains under considerable pressure, which will also increase political risks.  Weak oil prices over the next five years will see the government forced to liberalize the economy, opening up opportunities for cross-border investment and trade. 
Market Overview
Shares of Saudi Samba surge after $15.6 billion takeover bid
Samba Financial Group jumped in Saudi Arabia after rival National Commercial Bank, the kingdom’s largest lender by assets, offered to acquire it for as much as $15.6 billion. The shares advanced 9.9% to 26.30 riyals as of 10:16 a.m. in Riyadh, while National Commercial Bank rose 7.3%. National Commercial Bank proposed paying as much as 29.32 riyals per share for Samba, a premium of about 27.5% to its closing price on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia has been taking steps to shore up its banking sector from the double whammy of the coronavirus shock and lower oil prices. Lenders in the world’s largest oil exporter are expected to be hit hard as lockdown measures and lower spending impact earnings.
Middle East inks $25bn of deals defying Covid-19 gloom
It’s been a busy week for dealmaking in the Middle East. In a matter of days, about $25 billion in deals have been struck in the oil-rich region, including the year’s biggest infrastructure and banking transactions even as the coronavirus pandemic cripples overall dealmaking. The blitz is quite rare for a region often known for political unrest and its influence on energy markets. It is also a welcome relief for investment bankers looking to salvage what could be a difficult year for mergers and acquisitions. M&A activity in the Middle East is reviving as governments take measures to diversify their economies away from oil. They’re also seeking to create more efficiencies through consolidation or by bringing in overseas investors.
Covid-19 will accelerate digital banking, says National Bank of Bahrain CEO
The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and concerns about social distancing have accelerated the adoption of digital banking channels and may hasten the end of ‘traditional’ branches, according to National Bank of Bahrain CEO Jean Christophe Durand. In an interview with Arabian Business, Durand said that in NBB’s case, the use of digital channels among its 200,000 retail customers has “increased tremendously” since the beginning of the pandemic. “It’s not a reaction to the crisis, but I’d say it’s an acceleration of the process,” he said. “But digital strategy takes time. It does not happen overnight….you need to educate your clients, and in a way, the crisis has been an accelerator of this education process.”

 
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