CGI Gulf Insights of the Week Aug 03 2020 (232)

ByCGI Gulf Insights of the Week
Monday, 03 August 2020
Published inAugust 2020

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CRIF GULF WEEKLY INSIGHTS

Country Risk Update - Oman

Risk Indicator - DB5a
Risk Level - High
Ratings Trend - Deteriorating

Dun & Bradstreet downgrades Oman’s country risk rating as the outlook for oil weakens further, and the country needs a bailout to avoid currency depreciation. The economy has good potential for diversification, including tourism and logistics. Sultan Haitham's (so far) smooth succession reduces the risk of domestic instability and increases the likelihood of needed fiscal reforms.

Market Overview

Global remittances could drop as much as $108b in 2020
Global remittances could fall by as much as $108.6 billion in 2020 if it takes a year to contain the coronavirus pandemic and reopen economies, according to Asian Development Bank. "Migrant workers are among the hardest hit groups, with many facing scant job security and limited access to social assistances," ADB economists James Villafuerte and Aiko Kikkawa Takenaka wrote in a blog posted on the lender's website. Large-scale unemployment and wage reduction among migrant workers threaten households in Asia-Pacific, where remittance receipts may be cut by $54.3 billion this year.

Impairments and margin squeeze hurt first-half profits of UAE banks
A surge in loan impairments caused by the impact of COVID-19 and an economic slowdown resulting from low oil prices have seen a sharp decline in profits for UAE banks in the first half of 2020. In addition, a sharp contraction in interest margins resulting from a low-interest environment too, has hurt the profitability of banks. Despite the reopening of the economy, challenging operating environment posed by economic contraction resulting from COVID-19 and low oil prices are expected to linger and banks are likely to face the burden of rising loan impairments.

India's banks want to give gold lenders a run for their money
Indian families, sitting on the world's biggest private stash of gold, are rushing to borrow against their jewellery as the precious metal rallies to records and the coronavirus pandemic fuels an economic downturn. Now, financial firms and banks are using that demand to lure more customers from pawnbrokers and money lenders. The added competition could lower borrowing costs for Indian consumers, who in desperate moments of financial stress often pay exorbitant rates to informal lenders to use gold as collateral. Firms like HDFC Bank Ltd. and Federal Bank Ltd. are expanding the loans they make against the precious metal.

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CGI Gulf Insights of the Week Aug 03 2020

Do your clients and partners know that your company is operational?

Answer a few simple questions and let the market know that your company is back in business!

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