CGI Gulf Insights of the Week 05 Mar 2017 (245)

ByCGI Gulf Insights of the Week
Sunday, 05 March 2017
Published inMarch 2017

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CRIF – Dun & Bradstreet is pleased to bring to you the latest edition of our newsletter ‘CRIF Gulf Insights’ (CGI). CGI will keep you informed about the current trends in the GCC markets and highlight key events in the regional and global economy.

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CRIF Dun & Bradstreet Communications Team

CGI | Issue 59 | March 2017

Country Risk Update - Bahrain

Bahrain has enjoyed a series of strong structural current account surpluses over the past decade, allowing it to build up significant FX reserves and reduce its foreign debt. However, this situation is now in reverse, with the recent sharp drop in the oil price forcing the government to draw down on these reserves and increase its debt levels. Meanwhile, financial sector risk has been given a boost by the October issue of a USD17.5bn international bond. Capital buffers remain at healthy levels and the ratio of non-performing loans to total lending is relatively low - although liquidity has tightened over the past year. According to the IMF, banking supervision is adequate, and as a result we are currently recommending LC terms.

Business, Finance and Commodity News

Dubai's digital drive forecast to be worth extra $4.8bn by 2019

Digital innovation is setting the course for long-term economic growth in the Middle East. While the region’s digital economy has historically lagged behind the rest of the world, it’s quickly catching up. With an estimated 160M potential users by 2025, it is estimated that the Middle East’s digital economy could contribute up to 3.8 percent annually in GDP – amounting to approximately $ 95B.

Oman gains breathing space with jumbo $5bn bond sale

Oman's government has given itself breathing space from the pressure of financing a large budget deficit by selling $5 billion of international bonds, almost completing its entire foreign borrowing plan for 2017 in a single issue. Bond sale was about double the size that most investors had expected and a huge amount for a country which returned to the international bond market in 2016 after an absence of two decades.

Qatar's foreign trade surplus jumps 62% in January

Qatar's January trade surplus increased by 62.2 percent from a year earlier, according to data released by the country's Ministry of Development, Planning and Statistics. The country's surplus rose to QR 10.9B ($3 billion) in January from QR 10.7B in December and up from QR 6.7B in January 2016. Qatar's December trade surplus, which increased 21.7 percent from a year earlier, was its only monthly rise in 2016.

IMF eyes Islamic finance stability, warns of hybrid risks

The International Monetary Fund plans to formally include Islamic finance into its surveillance framework, a nod to the fast-growing sector but noting risks posed by complex hybrid products that replicate conventional ones. Islamic finance, which bans interest payments and pure monetary speculation, is estimated to have over $2 trillion of assets globally with around $1.3 trillion held by Islamic commercial banks.

Commodity Tracker

D&B Article of the Week

The Global Risk Matrix

Dun & Bradstreet’s Global Business Impact (GBI) score for Q4 2016 worsened for a third consecutive quarter, to 281 (out of a maximum of 1,000), from 243 in Q3. The Q4 figure is the second highest on record, and is only just below the all-time high of 283 recorded in Q3 2014. The developments in Q4 take the score significantly above the long-term average (254.2) for the first time since Q3 2015. Nevertheless, the average of 247.25 for 2016 is an improvement on the averages seen in 2015 (248.75) and 2014 (261.50). The latest score confirms our view that business conditions are still feeling the after-effects of the global financial crisis, and the risks have been further compounded by political issues. Read more

CRIF D&B Highlights

CRIF and HARMONYCREDIT established a strategic partnership for credit risk management solutions in Beijing
With CRIF's advanced credit scoring model and decision solutions, the new platform will help individuals as well as small and medium-sized and micro-companies improve credit management with effective and customized services.

CRIF organizes credit risk management seminar series in Shanghai and Beijing
CRIF and senior business executives dealing with finance and credit management discussed credit risk management challenges and opportunities in the current economic scenario in China. More than 100 guests from nearly 80 companies attended the seminars and discussed the more pressing issues and concerns which are generally consistent across companies and not always related to industry, geography, regulation or competitive landscapes.

Dun & Bradstreet acquires Avention
Dun & Bradstreet acquired Avention, which provides company, contact, and market data through its OneSource® solutions.This acquisition combines Dun & Bradstreet’s best-in-class content with Avention’s intuitive, user-friendly platform to provide sales and marketing professionals with actionable market and company information.

Upcoming Events this Week

Dubai Lynx 2017
Mar 5 - Mar 8
Mina Al Salam Hotel

Innovation Arabia Congress 2017
Mar 6 - Mar 8
The Address Dubai Marina

Reading Recommendation of the Week

The Undoing Project
Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Kahneman and Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original studies undoing our assumptions about the decision-making process. Their work revolutionized Big Data studies, advanced evidence-based medicine and led to a new approach to government regulation.

Release Date:

December 6, 2016